The recent conflict involving Iran and the United States is expected to leave long-term scars on global energy markets, despite a temporary ceasefire that briefly eased oil prices.
A two-week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump led to a sharp drop in oil prices, with crude falling nearly 15% to around $94 per barrel as markets anticipated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supply.
However, analysts warn that even in a best-case scenario, the disruption caused by weeks of conflict will have lasting consequences.
Fragile Ceasefire and Ongoing Risks
The ceasefire remains uncertain, with challenges surrounding the safe resumption of tanker movements and broader geopolitical tensions. Key sticking points include sanctions on Iran, compensation demands, and nuclear policy disagreements.
Uncertainty over security in the Gulf region means shipping and oil production may not return to normal quickly, keeping market risks elevated.
Infrastructure Damage and Supply Constraints
Significant damage to energy infrastructure has compounded the situation. Qatar reported that Iranian attacks reduced its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity by 17%, with recovery expected to take several years.
Major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia are also likely to delay full production resumption until stability is নিশ্চিত, while shipping disruptions continue to affect global supply chains.
Industry estimates suggest it could take up to four months for partial normalcy to return to energy markets.
Rising Costs and Market Adjustments
Several factors are expected to keep oil prices elevated:
- Countries replenishing depleted oil reserves
- Increased demand for strategic stockpiling
- Potential transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz
- A geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel
Reports indicate Iran may introduce transit charges for oil shipments, which could generate billions annually while further increasing global energy costs.
Long-Term Market Impact
Despite the temporary price drop, Brent crude still hovered around $95 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
Analysts conclude that the global energy market has entered a more volatile phase, where geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and strategic recalibrations will continue to influence prices and trade flows in the coming years.
